Calibration: is "70%" really 70%?
A model states a probability. Whether that number means anything is measurable, and in most models it does not.
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Sources
- Niculescu-Mizil, A. & Caruana, R. 2005 · Predicting Good Probabilities with Supervised Learning · ICML 2005
- Platt, J. 1999 · Probabilistic Outputs for Support Vector Machines · Advances in Large Margin Classifiers
- Guo, C. et al. 2017 · On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks · ICML 2017
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